Population and Demographics — Frequently Asked Questions	For more information contact Jackie Storen (250) 216-2291

What is the difference between an estimate and a projection?

A population estimate represents a current or historical measure of the population. A population projection is a forecast of future populations. BC Stats uses the Component/Cohort-Survival method to project populations. This method "grows" the population from the latest base year estimate by forecasting births, deaths and migration by age. These forecasts are based on past trends modified to account for possible future changes and, consequently, should be viewed as only one possible scenario of future population.

Why does Census population differ from estimates in Census years?

In Canada, a Census of the population is undertaken every five years. While the objective of this exercise is to count everybody in the country, in reality some people are inevitably missed and in some cases, people get counted more than once. Statistics Canada conducts a number of post-censal surveys to develop an estimate of the net difference between those who were missed and those who were counted more than once and this net undercount (typically more people are missed than over counted) is then applied to the Census population to develop an estimate of the overall population. The estimate is also adjusted for the timing difference between the population on Census day (mid-May) and the estimates reference date of July 1.

Why are population figures revised from time to time?

Population estimates are periodically revised for a number of reasons, including revisions to the underlying indicator data, methodological improvements and to reflect updated base year data from a new census. Projections are updated annually to reflect the latest estimates based on actual indicator data, as well as any new information on likely future demographic and economic changes (e.g., the expectation of a mine closure due to mineral depletion). Census data are never revised except in the event that an error is discovered.

Note that when population data are revised, other measures such as employment rates, GDP per capita and so forth, that use population as a denominator, will be revised also.

Where can I find the population of a specific city, town, region, etc?

The most up-to-date population estimate for British Columbia as a whole is available in our quarterly Population Highlights release or on the BC Quarterly Population page. Annual totals are also available. Estimates of total population (i.e., without age/sex detail) are available for municipalities (i.e., cities, towns, etc.), regional districts and development regions.

Projections of future population are available at the British Columbia level, as well as for various sub-provincial regions.

Population estimates for Canada and by province and territory are also available.

Where can I find age/sex detail for a specific region?

Population estimates by age and sex are available for British Columbia by various geographies: health regions, regional districts and development regions and school districts. Population projections by age and sex for these geographies are available for purchase at the BC Stats web store.

Can I get data for regions that are not specifically available on the website?

Custom estimates and projections for non-standard regions can be produced on a fee-for-service basis. For more information, contact Jackie Storen at 250-216-2291.

What is meant by the term components of population change and what is the definition of each of these components?

The three basic components of population change are births, deaths and migration.

The difference between births and deaths is termed the "natural increase", or "natural change."

Migration is typically expressed as a "net" measure (i.e., Net migration is the difference between the movements into a region and those out of a region) and can be segmented into (i) international, (ii) inter-provincial, and (iii) intra-provincial migration:

(i) International migration includes immigrants (people moving to Canada) and emigrants (people moving away from Canada). Statistics Canada also estimates non-permanent residents as part of the population (e.g., foreign students and workers, refugees) and Canadian citizens and immigrants who are temporarily abroad (that is, people who are not maintaining a usual residence in Canada, but who will eventually return to Canada and therefore are not true emigrants). In addition, Statistics Canada estimates the number of Returning Emigrants (i.e., people who emigrated from Canada at one point, but then decided to return to Canada);

(ii) Inter-provincial migration occurs between provinces and territories as interprovincial in- and out-migration. At the Canada-level, net inter-provincial migration equals zero; and

(iii) Intra-provincial migration represents movement within a province. This type of migration is considered when sub-provincial estimates and projections are produced.

Data related to migration and immigration and births and deaths are also available.