Demography

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• What is the difference between an estimate and a projection?

  A population estimate represents a current or historical measure of the population. A population projection is a forecast of future populations. BC Stats uses the Component/Cohort-Survival method to project populations. This method "grows" the population from the latest base year estimate by forecasting births, deaths and migration by age. These forecasts are based on past trends modified to account for possible future changes and, consequently, should be viewed as only one possible scenario of future population.

• Why does Census population differ from estimates in Census years?

  The objective of every Census is to provide detailed information at a single point in time on the demographic, social and economic conditions of the population. One of its goals is to enumerate the entire population on Census Day. Inevitably, however, some people are not counted, either because their household did not receive a Census questionnaire (for example, a household living in a separate apartment in a house) or because they were not included in the questionnaire completed by the household (for example, a boarder or lodger). Some people may also be missed because they have no usual residence, and did not spend census night in any dwelling. On the other hand, a small number of people may also be counted twice (for example, a student living away from home).

  To determine how many individuals were missed, or counted more than once, Statistics Canada conducts post-censal coverage studies of a representative sample of individuals. The results of these studies provide information that is used to adjust the Census counts for the purpose of producing current (quarterly and annual) population estimates, which take into account net under-enumeration in the Census.

  For example, in 2006, after adjustment for net under-enumeration, the population estimate for Canada was 2.8% higher than the population enumerated in the Census and the population estimate for British Columbia was 2.9% higher than the Census count.

• Why are population figures revised from time to time?

  Population estimates are periodically revised for a number of reasons, including revisions to the underlying indicator data, methodological improvements and to reflect updated base year data from a new census. Projections are updated annually to reflect the latest estimates based on actual indicator data, as well as any new information on likely future demographic and economic changes (e.g., the expectation of a mine closure due to mineral depletion). Census data are never revised except in the event that an error is discovered.

  Note that when population data are revised, other measures such as employment rates, GDP per capita and so forth, that use population as a denominator, will be revised also.

• Where can I find the population of a specific city, town, region, etc?

  The most up-to-date population estimate for British Columbia as a whole is available in our quarterly Population Highlights release or on the Population Estimates page. This page also has annual totals as well as estimates of total population (i.e., without age/sex detail)  for municipalities (i.e., cities, towns, etc.), regional districts and development regions and estimates for Canada by province and territory.

  Projections of future population are available at the British Columbia level, as well as for various sub-provincial regions.

• Where can I find age/sex detail for a specific region?

  Population estimates by age and sex are available for British Columbia by various geographies: health regions, regional districts, development regions, school districts and Children and Family Development regions. Population projections by age and sex are available for the same region types.

• Can I get data for regions that are not specifically available on the website?

  Custom estimates and projections for non-standard regions can be produced on a fee-for-service basis. For more information, contact Jackie Storen at 250-216-2291.

• What is meant by the term components of population change and what is the definition of each of these components?

  The three basic components of population change are births, deaths and migration.

  The difference between births and deaths is termed the "natural increase", or "natural change."

  Migration is typically expressed as a "net" measure (i.e., Net migration is the difference between the movements into a region and those out of a region) and can be segmented into (i) international, (ii) inter-provincial, and (iii) intra-provincial migration:

  (i) International migration includes immigrants (people moving to Canada) and emigrants (people moving away from Canada). Statistics Canada also estimates non-permanent residents as part of the population (e.g., foreign students and workers, refugees) and Canadian citizens and immigrants who are temporarily abroad (that is, people who are not maintaining a usual residence in Canada, but who will eventually return to Canada and therefore are not true emigrants). In addition, Statistics Canada estimates the number of Returning Emigrants (i.e., people who emigrated from Canada at one point, but then decided to return to Canada);

  (ii) Inter-provincial migration occurs between provinces and territories as interprovincial in- and out-migration. At the Canada-level, net inter-provincial migration equals zero; and

  (iii) Intra-provincial migration represents movement within a province. This type of migration is considered when sub-provincial estimates and projections are produced.

  Data related to migration and immigration and births and deaths are also available.