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Workforce Projections

About Workforce Projections

Workforce planning in the BC Public Service (BCPS) has become an important part of business strategy. Initially developed in 2006 with a focus on key occupations at risk (such as the Finance and IT), the workforce planning model has evolved to include the broader BC Public Service. The projections are an important part of enterprise risk management and enable users within the BCPS to improve decision-making in light of the demographic challenges. The model provides critical information to the BC Public Service in order to ensure future staffing will be sufficient to deliver quality services to all British Columbians.

Current Demographics

On average, BCPS employees are more than four years older than the BC labour force and the average age is increasing. Only 9.5 percent of BCPS employees are under the age of 30 compared to 25 percent of the overall BC labour force.

Evolution of the Workforce Planning Model

Between 2007 and 2009, the workforce projections model increased in sophistication, utilizing more detailed experience analysis of pre-retirement turnover and retirements. BCPS specific termination and retirement scales were developed. There has been ongoing collaboration with the Ministry of Finance with regards to assumption setting in order to reflect the economic outlook and with the Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Innovation in terms of the BC labour market projections.

Workforce Projections Used in Ministry Workforce Plans

The model provides projections of the potential future workforce in the BC Public Service overall and on the ministry and sector level, for example the Natural Resource Sector or Health Sector. At the start of each planning cycle, demographic summaries and projections are provided to the ministries. The actuarial projections show expected exits by source—retirement and pre-retirement, as well as expected new hires and headcount projections for the next 10 years.

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