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BC Stats, with the financial assistance of the Ministry of
Advanced Education, developed the Regional Employment Projection Model
(REPM), designed to project industrial and occupational employment in
regions of the Province of British Columbia. The model projects employment
at the Regional District level and then aggregates back up to the College
or Development Region level for reporting purposes. This aggregation has proved necessary as
many of the labour markets by Regional District are too small to enable
the creation of reliable data.
The methodology used in the model has come largely from previous
work on community dependencies carried out by BC Stats. The fundamental premise
is that the economy of a region can be represented by income flows that can be
classified as "basic" (or driver) and "non-basic" (or induced), depending on the
source of the income.
The current version of the model is benchmarked to the 2001 Census
employment by Industry within Regional District, and is projected forward up to
the most up-to-date annual employment data from the Labour Force Survey. The
growth rates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) at the provincial level for
the basic industries are used to project growth down to the Regional District
level. The model then calculates the indirect jobs generated based on the
Regional District specific multipliers.
The industrial employment projections from the Canadian
Occupational Projection System (COPS) reconciled to the employment projections
produced by the BC Ministry of Finance at the provincial level are then
used as the source data for the industrial growth, both in determining
the growth rates in the direct employment, and then as a benchmark on
which to reconcile the total employment by industry generated by the model.
An important determining factor of differential growth by
region is the nature of major projects coming on-stream in the outlook
timeframe. These projects affect not only construction employment, but
also operating employment once in the production phase.
Employment Projections for the 2006 to 2011 time frame
The current REPM report covers the five year period from 2006 to 2011.
The Ministry of Finance in their "Budget and Fiscal Plan—2007/08 to 2009/10" projects
an average annual employment growth rate of 2.0%, with the goods producing sector growing
at a significantly higher rate (3.2%) than the service producing sector (1.7%). Among the
goods producing sectors, COPS projects the highest growth rates for Agriculture and its
associated manufacturing industries of Food and Beverage Manufacturing at between 5 and
6 per cent per year over the next five years. The Construction Industry is also expected
to continue to expand, gaining approximately 30,000 more jobs by 2011 (a 3.6% annual
growth rate). The service producing sector reflects lower growth expectations, primarily
because Retail Trade, the largest industry in the province, as well as much of the public
sector, are expected to expand at a considerably slower pace than the rest of the economy,
Retail at 1.6 per cent and Government Services and Education at 1.2 per cent.
The industrial growth drives the demand for occupations and accordingly,
jobs concentrated in the primary and manufacturing and construction sectors are at the
fore, such as the trades, transport and equipment operators, processors and manufacturers.
Occupations projected to have relatively slow growth are primarily found in the public
sector such as teachers and social service providers as well as sales and financial
service providers.
While all regions of the province are projected to experience increases
in employment over the next five years, the North (North West and Northern Lights College
Regions) is expected to grow by more than 3 per cent per year, fuelled by mega projects
in the Utilities, Other Transportation (includes pipelines), Water Transportation
(includes port developments) and Mining. Regions anticipated to grow considerably
more slowly than the province as a whole are the three regions of Vancouver Island
where so many of the sales and service jobs are concentrated.
Employment Outlook for British Columbia:
COPS BC Unique Scenario for 2005 to 2015
This paper provides an overview and summary findings from the current Canadian Occupational
Projection System (COPS) employment demand model for British Columbia (BC), the COPS BC Unique Scenario.
An analysis of BC's employment projections by major industry and occupational groups is provided for the period 2005 to 2015.
http://www.aved.gov.bc.ca/labourmarketinfo/reports/COPS_BCUnique_2006.pdf
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